Why you should watch the SAG Awards on Saturday

Watching television on a Saturday night? Why would anyone want to do that? This Saturday is the 22nd Screen Actors Guild Awards and, if you pay attention to the Oscars, it’s worth tuning in.

The SAG Awards is the second awards ceremony of the year that is decided by many of the same people who are members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences. The first one was the Producers Guild of America, who gave their Best Picture award to The Big Short.

Adam McKay’s movie about Wall Street insiders who predicted the 2008 housing crisis could really solidify its standing as the frontrunner at the SAG Awards with a win in the Outstanding Performance by a Cast Award. The award isn’t that good a predictor (American Hustle beat 12 Years A Slave, for example), but Birdman did win it last year.

The SAG Awards are much more important in the four individual acting categories. All four SAG winners last year ended up winning at the Oscars. So if you want to know if Leonardo DiCaprio really has a chance to win Best Actor, you need to tune in.

The last time the guild and the Academy didn’t agree on Best Actor was in 2003, when Johnny Depp weirdly won for Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl instead of Mystic River’s Sean Penn.

There have been more differences in the Best Actress field, but since 2009, the Oscars and SAG have only differentiated once. Viola Davis of The Help beat out The Iron Lady’s Meryl Streep at the 2011 ceremony.

SAG really shakes things up in the Supporting Actor group. While the last two winners have been the same, the 2012 ceremony saw Lincoln’s Tommy Lee Jones win and Oscar-winner Christoph Waltz wasn’t even nominated for Django Unchained.

In the Best Supporting Actress category, only seven winners lost the Oscar. The last time it happened was in 2008, when The Reader’s Kate Winslet beat Vicky Christina Barcelona’s Penelope Cruz. At the Oscars, Winslet was considered a Lead Actress and won.

Of course, there are some weird things about this year’s ceremony. Trumbo was the most-nominated film, but only ended up with one Oscar nomination (for Bryan Cranston). Straight Outta Compton and Beasts Of No Nation are both up for the Best Ensemble award and were both left out of the Oscars in the acting categories.

The SAG Awards air Saturday on TNT and TBS, live from the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles. You can check out the full list of nominees here.

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