Breaking down the Best Picture Oscar nominees: Is it really only a race between 'Birdman' and 'Boyhood'?

We are just five days away from the 87th Academy Awards, meaning that soon, there will be a new title added to the columns at Hollywood & Highland Center that list the names of all previous Best Picture winners. Will that title be Boyhood or Birdman? Is there still a chance that any others win?

If any year actually deserved a full slate of 10 Best Picture nominees, it was 2014. Sure, 2013 may have been a stronger year overall, but 2014 had a lot more serious contenders for the top Oscar. Oddly enough, only wight films were nominated, marking the first time since the Academy switched its Best Picture format that less than nine were nominated. (Prior to 2009, the Academy only nominated five films, a format that had been introduced in 1944.)

However, despite less nominees, this is the first time in a few years that we really don’t know who will win until the show starts. Even last year’s two-horse race between Gravity and 12 Years A Slave was pretty easy to guess.

This time, we have a race between Boyhood and Birdman, but the two have won so many different awards from guilds and other bodies that it’s hard to say which one will win. Neither film has the same kind of social significance that 12 Years A Slave had and both of them have a gimmick. Richard Linklater made Boyhood over the span of 12 years. Alejandro G. Inarritu and his editors made Birdman look like it was all one long take.

But there’s a reason why eight films are up for Best Picture, not just two. Enough Academy voters liked those six other movies, so let’s break it down.

[new page = The Contenders]

American Sniper:

If any film has a chance to surprise us all, it’s American Sniper. The older members of the Academy may want to let Clint Eastwood take another bow, since we don’t know how much longer we will have the 84-year-old around to make movies. Plus, the film is the only bona-fide blockbuster nominated.

Sniper has two things going against it though. The Academy might not want to make a habit out of honoring movies without Best Director nominations. Argo accomplished that feat at the 2012 ceremony, becoming just the second modern film to do so (the other is Driving Miss Daisy). The other is the fact that Eastwood has already directed and produced two Best Picture winners (Unforgiven and Million Dollar Baby), so they could decide that he’s been honored him enough.

Birdman

Birdman heads into the Oscars looking really good. Inarritu’s film has won important guild awards, especially from the Producers and Directors guilds. Its win at the SAG Awards showed that it is beloved by actors, who are at the center of the film, which stars Michael Keaton.

The only knock against the movie is its lack of major wins at the BAFTA Awards. The last time the Oscar for Best Picture didn’t match the BAFTA for Best Film was 2008, when No Country For Old Men topped Atonement at the Oscars.

Another issue could be that the Academy doesn’t want to honor yet another movie about show business. Shakespeare In Love won for 1999, The Artist won for 2011 and Argo won for 2012. This is actually only a recent phenomenon, as before that, you had to go all the way back to All About Eve for a Best Picture winner that was strictly about actors and entertainment.

Boyhood

For the longest time, Boyhood sounded like a sure bet, but then Birdman started winning awards left and right. That’s what happened to 12 Years A Slave last year, but it was victorious in the end. The same thing could happen this year, if Boyhood is still the critical darling that it was when it came out this past summer.

Linklater has been making movies for over two decades and it’s great to see him finally get his due. Boyhood is a magnificent film, despite a thin story and running nearly three hours. It’s not the greatest film of the decade, but it sure is a good one.

If Linklater somehow beats Inarritu for the Best Director statue, that will be the ultimate sign that Boyhood still has fans and should bode well for Best Picture.

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel did not meet the same fate as the quirky filmmaker’s other releases. Usually, he will be recognized for his writing and that’s it, but this time, he finally made a sweeping adventure that earned widespread support.

There’s a very thin chance that it could take home the top prize, but I think the fact that Anderson did get a Best Director nod helps its chances. It’s not going to go home empty handed, though, and should succeed in categories like production design and hair and make-up.

[new page = The Also-Rans]

The British Biopics

I wrote about this at length before, but the fact that the Oscars took the bait dangled in front of them by two middling biopics was disappointing. The Theory of Everything does feature a great performance from Eddie Redmayne and if he beats Keaton for Best Actor, it won’t feel awful. Felicity Jones is also good in it. But it wasn’t Best Picture material.

The Imitation Game, backed by the Weinsteins of course, stands a better chance at shocking the world with a Best Picture win. Morten Tyldum got an undeserved Best Director nod and the film’s adapted screenplay has a chance to win.

Selma

It’s sad and it shouldn't be this way, but Ava DuVernay’s Selma has a zero percent chance at winning Best Picture. The film’s only other nomination is for John Legend and Common’s “Glory.” It’s almost like the Best Picture nomination was a consolation prize for not being recognized anywhere else.

One of the suggested reasons for the film’s lack of support was Paramount’s struggle to get screeners out on time. They need to fix that system, or maybe Paramount really would have been better served by waiting until 2015 to release it.

Whiplash

In a perfect world, Damien Chazelle’s exhilarating Whiplash would have a chance to actually win Best Picture. But it will go down as an also-ran, a member of the long list of little indie movies to get recognition and no major wins. J.K. Simmons’ Best Supporting Actor Oscar probably has his name etched on it already, but the film deserves more.

The Oscars are on Sunday, live on ABC. We will be live-tweeting the ceremony at @celcafe.