The Once and Future Heisenberg
Like a witching hour coup in some small county in the Middle East Homeland’s quickly supplanted the AMC reign of both Mad Men and Bryan Cranston (when available for consideration) for best drama series and lead drama actor. Now coming off a lackluster second season, Homeland doesn’t have the wave of support it did after its first season. And with buzz swirling for the final episodes of Breaking Bad, although it will be the first part of season 5 of the show that is up for awards and not this current run, it seems as though Cranston could regain his throne and Breaking Bad could finally win for best drama series as well.
Although with Cranston and Breaking Bad butting heads with Kevin Spacey for House of Cards nothing is written in stone. And with the Emmys knowing they will have one more chance to award Breaking Bad, and the fact that TV people love awarding big name movie stars when they grace the small screen with their presence, House of Cards could end up shutting Breaking Bad out for both best lead actor and best drama series. I’m guessing there will be a split, most likely Spacey winning best lead actor – my apologies, again, to Jon Hamm – in a drama but Breaking Bad winning best drama series. The Emmys may have qualms awarding the Netflix premiered show. An interesting dark horse here would be the show that is actually about king making in Game of Thrones. The first season still stands out as the strongest but with so many characters and storylines having to be juggled the show certainly deserves some recognition for what it accomplished.
Breaking Bad also has three nominations for supporting actor and actress in a drama series. I think Breaking Bad will most likely win supporting actor as they last year’s winner in Aaron Paul nominated again along with Jonathan Banks. Bobby Cannavale is definitely strong competition however as he galvanized the previously listless Boardwalk Empire. Supporting actress basically boils down to one main aspect: do the Emmys want to finally award Anna Gunn for having to deal with all the fan hatred of Skyler White for standing in Walt’s way on Breaking Bad, or not? If not, Emilia Clarke had a very strong season for Game of Thrones as her character, Daenarys Targaryen, underwent quite a transformation and received the most screen time she’s had from the show’s three season run.
The only category Breaking Bad isn’t nominated for on the drama side of things is for lead actress, which may be the most competitive award of the entire night. Claire Danes has a chance to repeat for Homeland – the only award Homeland actually deserved to win last year. Joining her is the consummate bridesmaid Elisabeth Moss who has yet to win despite being nominated five times for Mad Men. Scandal’s leading lady, Kerry Washington, kind of hit the big time this year and her recent popularity could parlay that into a surprise victory.
But Claire Danes’s main competition comes in the form of Vera Farmiga and Robin Wright for Bates Motel and House of Cards respectively. Farmiga has the unenviable task of playing Norman Bates’s mother in the television show based off of the seminal film classic Psycho. Wright, on the other hand, turned in a powerful performance as the career driven wife in a loveless marriage with Kevin Spacey.
One Last Visit to 30 Rock
And so it has come to this. More than any other year, this past year marked a transition year in the world of comedy TV. Sure, the old stalwarts in Modern Family and The Big Bang Theory are still present and Louie garnered another nomination. But really, the legitimization of HBO’s two comedies Girls and Veep, both improving in their second seasons, along with the last season for the past decade’s funniest show, 30 Rock, calling it a series is where this year’s storylines spring up.
The Golden Globes threw a pretty big egg on the Emmys’ face by awarding the much ballyhooed Girls, and Hollywood “it” girl at the time Lena Dunham, last year when the Emmys went with the tried and true Modern Family only months earlier. By all accounts Girls improved drastically in its second season. Veep, despite not garnering nearly as much buzz as Girls – apparently 90% of all TV blogs are run by hipsters, had probably the strongest season of any of the nominees. And of course there is 30 Rock’s last season to take into account. I think Girls probably wins just so the Emmys can say they are hip with the times after last year’s “debacle,” although Veep is probably more deserving…
…And will be awarded by allowing Julia Louis-Dreyfus to repeat for her lead role as Salina Meyer. Think of this as the new Mad Men versus Breaking Bad. Veep is so centrally focused on Louis-Dreyfus and her performance that the show couldn’t go without her. But for the sake of being hip to the scene Girls will end up being the main contender for best comedy series for years to come. Luckily, it won’t be nearly as upsetting that Louis-Dreyfus will win because Lena Dunham is nowhere close to Jon Hamm. Tina Fey also has a shot simply because it is the last season of 30 Rock. In the Emmys’ weakest field, lead actor for comedy, I’m thinking Jim Parsons gets the award but I’ll be pulling for Alec Baldwin for the last time.
For supporting actor and actress it remains, as always, Modern Family versus the world. Modern Family has a total of five nominees, two female and three male, for supporting roles in comedy. Tony Hale provides stiff competition for supporting actor and Bill Hader could be recognized for as a sort of career achievement as this past year was his last on Saturday Night Live. And that could be selling short the very aloof Adam Driver on Girls. For the ladies I’m expecting either Julie Bowen or Sofia Vergara to win. Jane Krakowski for 30 Rock could finally breakthrough on her fourth nomination as the Emmys know this will be her final chance to win for Jenna Maroney.
HBO: Happily Bombarding the Opposition
Behind the Candelabra will win in every category nominated. Now that we’ve got that out of the way.
It is completely unfair that HBO is judged with any other non-premium networks or outlets for awards, especially when it comes to miniseries or movies. Sure you may get the odd PBS upstart, maybe a BBC movie coming over or perhaps a Ken Burns documentary, but for the most part HBO dominates year in and year out. What other network could have one movie starring two Oscar winning actors in Michael Douglas and Matt Damon and an Oscar winning director in Steven Soderbergh? And that’s just one movie/miniseries. Let’s not forget about Oscar winner Al Pacino, nominee Toby Jones, or the hottest up and coming actor in Benedict Cumberbatch. And yes, those are all five of your nominees for lead actor in a miniseries or movie. I expect that Michael Douglas will end up winning out for his impersonation of Liberace.
Lead actress offers a bit more diversity as Helen Mirren is the only actress nominated for an HBO production. But of course it’s Helen Mirren so… However, Elisabeth Moss offers an interesting subplot to the category for her performance in Top of the Lake. Could there be a bit of sympathy for Elisabeth due to the fact she is always nominated but has never won for Mad Men? This would give the Emmys the chance to award Moss in kind of a trade off. Oh yeah, Helen Mirren.
In all actuality, American Horror Story: Asylum has the most nominees for a single miniseries/movie, only being shut out from the lead actor category. Jessica Lange could have a chance against Moss and Mirren. Sarah Paulson has a better chance in her category for supporting actress but the only performance I’ve seen from this category is Imelda Staunton’s for HBO’s The Girl. And both Zachary Quinto and James Cromwell are nominated for supporting actor having to go up against Scott Bakula. I’d expect the FX “miniseries” – despite the fact it returns year in and year out with many of the same actors just a different setting – to have its best shot for a win in the supporting actor category.
Your 2013 Winners List
Best Drama Series: Breaking Bad
Leading Actor Drama: Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
Leading Actress Drama: Claire Danes, Homeland
Supporting Actor Drama: Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Supporting Actress Drama: Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
Best Comedy Series: Girls
Leading Actor Comedy: Jim Parsons, Big Bang Theory
Leading Actress Comedy: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Supporting Actor Comedy: A Modern Family Pick ‘em
Supporting Actress Comedy: Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
Best Miniseries/Movie: Behind the Candelabra
Leading Actor Miniseries/Movie: Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
Leading Actress Miniseries/Movie: Hellen Mirren, Phil Spector
Supporting Actor Miniseries/Movie: Zachary Quinto, American Horror Story: Asylum
Supporting Actress Miniseries/Movie: Alfre Woodard, Steel Magnolias
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