Reactions to the 2013 Emmy Nominations

Now after the dust has settled from the 65th Emmy nominations announcement yesterday comes the prognostication. Here is an early look at the nominees and their potential to bring home a win.

Drama Series

This is a three show race between Game of Thrones, House of Cards, and Breaking Bad. I haven’t seen Homeland Season 2 but from what I’ve heard it couldn’t rekindle the quality of Season 1. Mad Men is always deserving but Season 5 was stronger than Season 6, the most recent season. The question here becomes how serious do the Emmy’s consider the Netflix Original shows. It will also come down to whether or not the Emmy’s want to start the Breaking Bad farewell tour now or wait to cap it off next year.

Lead Actor: Drama

Damian Lewis shocked everyone last year, wresting the trophy from Bryan Cranston. However, Homeland’s second season was not as well received as the first and Lewis’s character, though not necessarily his acting, was a large reason why. Awards shows usually reward big name movie actors when they make the leap to TV and this year’s nominations feature both Jeff Daniels for The Newsroom and Kevin Spacey for Netflix’s House of Cards. While I don’t think Daniels has a shot it will be interesting to see just how legitimate the Emmy’s feel the Netflix shows are. And, of course, Jon Hamm will go unrewarded yet again.

Lead Actress: Drama

Claire Danes was deserving for Homeland last year and probably is again this year. However, Elizabeth Moss had a very strong season on Mad Men. Vera Farmiga could be the darkhorse here for her portrayal as Norma Bates, Norman Bates’s mother, in Bates Motel. Kerry Washington also could be a solid candidate.

Supporting Actor: Drama

Another very good contest. The thinking here might be that Aaron Paul and Jonathan Banks end up canceling each other out for their work on Breaking Bad, especially since Paul won last year. Jim Carter gets a deserved nomination for his performance on Dowton Abbey but that will most likely be his only reward. Bobbay Cannavale is a darkhorse candidate as he helped HBO’s Boardwalk Empire regain some narrative focus by giving it a hot headed villain that Cannavale played perfectly. The problem with Peter Dinklage this year is that he had much more to do in Season 2 than in Season 3 of Game of Thrones and, despite him always being a treat, will probably not be awarded for that very reason. And very disappointingly Charles Dance, Tywin on game of Thrones was not given a nomination for his constant conversation smack downs he gave anyone and everyone in Season 3 of Game of Thrones.

Supporting Actress: Drama

Maggie Smith is the returning champion but it would be hard to ignore Emilia Clarke from Game of Thrones. Her character has transformed drastically since Season 1 and Season 3 was her strongest performance yet. Christina Hendricks, who should have won last year, just did not have enough screen time in the latest season of Mad Men to deserve the award this year.

Writing for a Drama Series

The problem with Game of Thrones’s “The Rains of Castamere” is that is based off what has already been written in a book. So despite it being a truly surprising episode for many viewers it could be dinged since it wasn’t come up with organically. Breaking Bad has two nominations in this category with “Dead Freight” making train heists relevant again.

Comedy Series

The main question here will be whether the Emmy’s will want to award 30 Rock for its final season. While 30 Rock has been nominated every year it has been on the air, it hasn’t won for best comedy series since 2009. If they choose not to give 30 Rock the win then there is stiff competition from the two HBO comedies Girls and Veep, both of which improved greatly in their sophomore seasons. Modern Family, last year’s winner, is also a strong contender and will most likely win but isn’t as deserving as the aforementioned HBO comedies. Louie could also be a surprise when it comes down to it but look for Louis C.K. to be awarded somewhere else.

Lead Actor: Comedy

This category follows the same principle as best comedy series. Alec Baldwin from 30 Rock has not won for best actor since 2009 and could get a win simply because it is the last year of the show. Jason Bateman returned as Michael Bluth in Arrested Development, and neither he nor the show could rekindle the flame from its original time on a decade ago. Louis C.K. and Matt Leblanc aren’t really acting as much as they are just being themselves. And then there’s Jim Parsons, who won the award in 2010 and 2011 before losing last year.

Lead Actress: Comedy

So if Julia Louis-Dreyfus won last year for Veep and the show and her performance improved this year then she should be the repeat winner, right? In a logical world that would be the case but the Emmy’s got egg on their face after not getting on the Lena Dunham bandwagon last year, like the Golden Globes did, and may want to rectify that mistake – even if Dreyfus is much more deserving. Amy Poehler is always delightful on Parks and Recreation.

Supporting Actor: Comedy

Modern Family is sending everyone except last year’s winner, Eric Stonestreet, again. Bill Hader could, but most likely won’t, be rewarded for his final year on Saturday Night Live. And then there’s completely off kilter Adam Driver in Girls, who is a very good darkhorse candidate. This one is wide open.

Supporting Actress: Comedy

More Modern Family love here with Sofia Vergara and Julie Bowen being nominated. Jane Krakowski follows the same principle as everything regarding 30 Rock. Personally, I think Anna Chlumsky is the yin to Julia Louis-Dreyfus’s yang and should probably win this award for Veep.

Writing for a Comedy Series

My gut says the Emmys will reward “Finale” of The Office as a lifetime achievement award, especially since it is not nominated in any other category. 30 Rock has two episodes nominated and could cancel each other out. Here is the spot where Louie may be awarded because really the show is more about the writing than anything else and the Emmys might not want Louie to go home empty handed.

Miniseries or Movie

Well this is an odd competition. On the one hand American Horror Story: Asylum garnered the most nominations in this year’s Emmys. On the other hand the critically acclaimed Behind the Candelabra is basically a Hollywood movie that aired on HBO because it couldn’t get picked up for distribution. Candelabra will most likely win but it really is only a two movie/miniseries race.

Lead Actor: Miniseries or Movie

So is this the Oscars or the Emmys? Aside from Toby Jones, who has been in his fair share of movies, every nominee in this category has been or currently are bonafide movie stars. The smart money is on Michael Douglas because everyone loves to reward impersonations of famous people for his take on Liberace in Behind the Candelabra, even if Matt Damon is the more deserving of the two for that movie. It will end up being a two man race between those two but Toby Jones also did a fine impersonation of Alfred Hitchcock in The Girl. But it’s going to be Damon or Douglas.

Check back closer to awards time for some more definitive predictions.